United States-India Nuke Deal At Stake

US President George W.Bush and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

India's political leaders considered pushing ahead with a landmark U.S.-India nuclear energy deal, a move that could bring down the government and lead to early elections. The debate among India's leaders revived hopes that the nuclear accord, seen as a cornerstone in the budding partnership between New Delhi and Washington, could be clinched before U.S. President George W. Bush leaves office in January.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and ruling Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi held an informal discussions with their coalition partners about whether to force a confrontation with opponents of the deal and, if need be, hold elections in November or December. The Indian government's term officially ends in May.

The nuclear deal would reverse three decades of American policy by allowing the shipment of atomic fuel and technology to India, which has not signed international nonproliferation accords and has tested nuclear weapons. India, in exchange, would open its civilian reactors to international inspections.

For Bush, the deal would be a major foreign policy success amid the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. For India, it would provide much-needed nuclear fuel for its energy-hungry economy. However, the deal has faced stiff opposition from India's communist parties, which do not want to see New Delhi drawn closer to Washington.

The Congress party's Singh, who has staked his premiership on the nuclear accord, has been pushing hard in private talks with his coalition to break with the communists. It has been reported that Singh had even threatened to resign if the government does not try to finalize the nuclear deal.

The communists are not part of India's governing coalition, led by the Congress party, but their support props up the government. They have threatened to pull their support if the administration tries to finalize the nuclear deal. Singh and Gandhi have already backed down once in their confrontation with the communists, deciding in September that they weren't ready to risk early elections.

With no guarantee that the next U.S. president will be as strong a proponent of the deal as Bush, Singh and Gandhi are re-evaluating that position and appear willing to hold elections if the communists won't budge. A major factor in their reasoning is the early monsoon rains, which could result in a strong fall harvest, pushing down food prices just as the elections would take place. That would also help the government tame inflation, which hit a 13-year high of 11.05 percent this week.

Secretary of State Nicholas Burns (R) shakes hands with Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon during a meeting in New Delhi

U.S. officials said earlier this year that with American elections coming up — and no guarantee the next American administration will keep the deal on the table — India needed to complete its end of the pact before the U.S. Congress starts its summer break in July because many lawmakers will be busy campaigning in the fall.